Stephane Dion......

Well, all I have to say is the Grits picked the right guy. My analysis is if the Grits want to have the best guy for the short term (i.e. to have the best bet to win in the next election), Bob Rae would be the choice, because he is a great campaigner (but with a huge baggage in Ontario).

On the other hand, Iggy would very likely to lose in the next election, if he won last weekend, because he is still a political rookie. However, he probably will be the biggest threat, among the top 4, in the one after the next election - that is given he would not make those mistakes similar to Stockwell Day's in Election 2000.

So, Rae is the best short term guy and Iggy is the long term candidate.

Dion??

I think he may not be as good as Rae in the short run and not be as good as Iggy in the long run, creteris paibus. But he possesses the "x-factor". He can unite the Grits much better than Rae or Iggy.

Dion is a policy wonk, similar to Harper. I think we will have two very similar leaders, in terms of campaign style, character, and charisma-wise, in the next election. The only thing I hope is the Conservatives better not underestimate Dion. He could surprise you just like Harper did in Election 2006.

One other thing is I found Jeffrey Simpson gave some pretty good advice to Dion on an online discussion session. Here is what he wrote:

(1) Find yourself the Liberal equivalent of Hugh Segal as chief of staff: a smart schmoozer, someone who'll talk straight to you and smooth the feathers your style will ruffle.

(2) Get yourself a smart economic adviser and a foreign policy one. You know less than you think you do about both areas, and less than you need to know.

(3) Phone Martin Cauchon, former minister of justice and a Rae supporter who went to Ignatieff on the final ballot. You need a Quebecker with political intelligence and unwavering federalist convictions. Get him to help you unify the party in Quebec and give you ongoing advice.

(4) Give an early speech in Quebec quoting your old academic writings about how you favor a balance federalism in which both levels of government must respect the other's. In particular, announce that if prime minister you would cancel the millennium scholarship program that you opposed in cabinet, as an example of how you oppose federal interventions in provincial territory.

(5) Take 45 minutes every morning with an English teacher.

(6) Do everything you can to get Rae and Ignatieff to run. And Kennedy too. Make it clear to all that you want Rae as a future foreign affairs minister and that Ignateiff will be a leading social policy minister.

(7) Get a balanced position on the Middle East and stick to it. You've got too French/France an attitude. The policy should be the one Canada used to follow: Israel has every right in law and practice to live within secure borders. The Palestinians have the right to a coherent state. The international community, including Canada, should do everything to help the parties towards that goal. Violence is abhorrent.